Globalization - Trump, Globalization, and Trade’s Uncertain Future - Sun and Planets Spirituality AYINRIN

 Globalization  - 

Trump, Globalization, and Trade’s Uncertain Future  -  Sun and Planets Spirituality AYINRIN

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Author:His Magnificence the Crown, Kabiesi Ebo Afin! Oloja Elejio Oba Olofin Pele Joshua Obasa De Medici Osangangan Broadaylight.

Donald Trump’s election to the presidency of the United States makes Brexit look like a hiccup. As Nigel Farage, the leader of the UK Independence Party, put it, the election of Trump is “Brexit times three.” This new reality will require businesses to rethink globalization, starting with the aspects Trump is most critical of.

Donald Trump’s election to the presidency of the United States makes Brexit look like a hiccup. As Nigel Farage, the leader of the UK Independence Party, put it, the election of Trump is “Brexit times three.” This new reality will require businesses to rethink globalization, starting with the aspects Trump is most critical of.

Trump’s plans so far have focused on restricting two facets of globalization: trade and people.

Restrictions on the inflow of people — not only illegal immigrants but also Muslims — have been one of Trump’s signature campaign themes. Migration is likely to come under additional pressure, even though net migration from Mexico to the U.S. has already been negative for years. So will people inflows for other purposes, like university studies and tourism.

There may even be implications for outbound flows, such as people who say they are willing to move at least as far as Canada to evade Trump’s presidency. These pressures will impact some firms more than others. The cross-border movement of people is of direct interest to certain types of firms, including airlines, operators of duty-free stores, and wire transfer firms.

Of broader business interest are Trump’s proposals on trade. They have sometimes been dismissed on the grounds that the Constitution specifically gives Congress authority over international trade. But this argument seems flimsy given the president-elect’s apparent impatience with constitutional limits on executive action. A president intent on transforming trade can find many ways to do so, especially if the same party — albeit one divided on this issue — also controls both houses of Congress.

Who should watch out for a reformulated Trump trade policy?

First, countries with which the U.S. runs the largest bilateral deficits are likely targets, starting with China. Others in this inner circle include Canada, Germany, Japan, Mexico, and South Korea. The president-elect has already threatened most of these countries in various ways, for example with his talk of imposing 45% tariffs on all imports from China and 35% tariffs on many from Mexico. So if you are exporting to the U.S. from these countries, you might want to pay attention.

Second, Trump’s trade doctrine appears to propose tied trade. For instance, it mentions the possibility of persuading countries with the largest trade surpluses with the U.S. to buy U.S. hydrocarbons. This sounds like a bonanza for the U.S. energy sector and for whoever else can secure the tied preferences to export to the countries with which the U.S. currently runs large trade deficits.

Third, domestic and foreign companies will face increased pressure to demonstrate that they create jobs in the U.S. (At a time when globalization is widely perceived to be threatening employment, and automation is actually doing so to a far greater extent, this seems like a good idea all around, not just in the United States.)

Fourth, U.S. multinationals abroad and multinationals from elsewhere that seek to operate in the U.S. may find themselves caught up in larger tensions between home and host governments, so they need to think through how to deal with that ahead of time. Trump has effectively tapped into a vein of U.S. anger, and his actions are likely to stir up anger overseas as well. U.S. exporters in particular have to watch out for retaliation by other countries.

All this gives impetus for reforming our organizations for international governance, which have been widely delegitimized in recent years, Brexit and the Trump election being just the two most recent body blows. There will be changes in the global economy with or without the participation of these organizations. In a best-case scenario, they and their internationalizing missions will retain relevance in the new world as opposed to being entirely sidelined.

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